Obama's State of the Party Address

02/08/2010

DESPITE DEMOCRATS HOLDING WHITE HOUSE & CONGRESS, DNC FUNDRAISING BARELY KEEPING PACE WITH RNC

Despite Controlling White House And Obama's Fundraising Network, DNC "Only Running Neck And Neck" With RNC In Fundraising. "But, in a criticism that also dogged Howard Dean, some Democrats have questioned Kaine's fundraising. Although, on average, the DNC is outpacing what it raised during the last off-year election, the committee is still only running neck and neck with the RNC, in spite of having access to Obama's fundraising list." (Holly Bailey, "Missing In Action," Newsweek, 10/21/09)

With White House And Congress, DNC Raised $81.1 Million In 2009 Compared To $81.3 Million Raised By The RNC. (Federal Election Commission Website, www.fec.gov, Accessed 2/1/10; Federal Election Commission Website, www.fec.gov, Accessed 2/1/10)

• RNC Even Received $16 Million More In "Unitemized" Small Donor Contributions Than DNC. (Federal Election Commission Website, www.fec.gov, Accessed 2/1/10; Federal Election Commission Website, www.fec.gov, Accessed 2/1/10)

DNC Ended 2009 With $8.6 Million Cash On Hand, Barely Edging Out RNC With $8.4 Million. (Federal Election Commission Website, www.fec.gov, Accessed 2/1/10; Federal Election Commission Website, www.fec.gov, Accessed 2/1/10)

• The DNC Also Ended The Year $4.6 Million In Debt, While The RNC Has None. (Federal Election Commission Website, www.fec.gov, Accessed 2/1/10; Federal Election Commission Website, www.fec.gov, Accessed 2/1/10)

OBAMA, DEMS' AGENDA ALREADY REBUKED IN MASSACHUSETTS, VIRGINIA AND NEW JERSEY

Obama "Enraged Voters" By First Pushing "Deeply Flawed" Stimulus Bill, Then "Plowed Ahead With Health Care" Instead Of Focusing On Unemployment, Economy. "[B]y opting to push a deeply flawed and insufficiently robust economic stimulus package, one that failed to keep unemployment from rising far higher than the administration expected, Obama committed his first presidential sin. ... The second presidential sin: Instead of immediately pivoting back to the economy when unemployment proved to be worse than anticipated, Obama plowed ahead with health care reform, all but yelling, 'Damn the torpedoes! Full speed ahead!' That enraged voters still more." (Charlie Cook, "Presidential Sins," National Journ al, 1/30/10)

• "Congressional Democrats are hardly blameless on this, but it is the president who sets the agenda and largely runs the show." (Charlie Cook, "Presidential Sins," National Journal, 1/30/10)

And In Massachusetts, Scott Brown Rode That "Wave Of Voter Anger" To Victory In "Stunning Embarrassment" Of Obama. "In an epic upset in liberal Massachusetts, Republican Scott Brown rode a wave of voter anger to win the U.S. Senate seat held by the late Edward M. Kennedy for nearly half a century, leaving President Barack Obama's health care overhaul in doubt and marring the end of his first year in office. The loss by the once-favored Democrat Martha Coakley in the Democratic stronghold was a stunning embarrassment for the White House after Obama rushed to Boston on Sunday to try to save the foundering candidate." ("GOP wins Senate seat in Mass.," The Associated Pre ss, 1/20/10)

• "'I voted for Obama because I wanted change. ... I thought he'd bring it to us, but I just don't like the direction that he's heading,' said John Triolo, 38, a registered independent who voted in Fitchburg." ("GOP wins Senate seat in Mass.," The Associated Press, 1/20/10)

Last Year, Virginia Was "Laboratory" For Obama Campaign Strategy, "Test Of This President And His Policies." "Governor's races tend to be determined by the quality of the candidates and local issues rather than national politics; overcrowded highways are the biggest topic this year in Virginia. Nevertheless, Virginia has been a laboratory for many of the ways Mr. Obama tried to change the ideological appeal and tactics of his party, and it is looming as an early if imprecise test of this president and his policies." (Adam Nagourney, "2 State Races May Put Lens On President," The New York Times, 10/11/09)

• DNC Chairman Tim Kaine Even Called Virginia "The Perfect Bellwether State." "'Chuck Todd [chief political analyst for NBC News] has said Virginia is the perfect bellwether state, and I really believe that,' Kaine said."  (Ray Reed, "Kaine Sees Tougher Fight, More Negative Tone In Governor's Race," The News & Advance, 9/30/09)

And Gov. Corzine's Loss Was Also "Embarrassment" For White House. "A Democratic loss there would be an embarrassment for this White House and provide a jolt of energy to a Republican Party at a crucial time as it recruits candidates and raises money for the elections next year. Republicans won the governors' races in New Jersey and Virginia in 1993 and went on to capture Congress in 1994." (Adam Nagourney, "2 State Races May Put Lens On President," The New York Times, 10/11/09)

• Because Obama's Aides Said Corzine Loss Would Be Seen "As A Rebuke Of Mr. Obama." "The state is one of only two nationwide holding governor's contests this year. And Mr. Obama's aides acknowledge that a loss in this deep-blue state would be interpreted as a rebuke of Mr. Obama, affecting his ability to pass major legislation and the public's perceptions of his party's power." (David M. Halbfinger & David Kocieniewski, "Meanwhile, Next Door, It's Team Obama For Corzine Sign In To Recommend," The New York Times, 9/24/09)

NOW DEMOCRATS ARE SEEKING DISTANCE FROM OBAMA ...

Democrats Using Budget To Find Ways "To Establish Their Distance" From Obama. "Heading into an election season in which Republicans are trying to tie Democrats to Obama's unpopular policies, Obama's budget gives his fellow Democrats an unlikely campaign tool -- a catalogue of ways to establish their distance from controversial aspects of his administration." (Janet Hook & Christi Parsons, "Congressional Democrats Are Nay-Saying Obama's Budget," Los Angeles Times, 2/3/10)

• There's A Growing "Gap Between Obama's Governing Agenda And Congressional Democrats' Political Interest." "All that underscores a potential gap between Obama's governing agenda and congressional Democrats' political interest in the election. While Democrats on the ballot encounter stiff headwinds, Obama is asking them look at the big picture on the budget, take on tough issues, and let the politics take care of themselves." (Janet Hook & Christi Parsons, "Congressional Democrats Are Nay-Saying Obama's Budget," Los Angeles Times, 2/3/10)

OR JUST CALLING IT QUITS ...

"'My message to my clients? Jump ship now,' said one Democratic operative who advises a number of targeted Members of Congress. 'Obama can't help you.'" (Chris Cillizza, "Scott Brown Wins Massachusetts Senate Special Election Race," The Washington Post, 1/19/10)

Six House Democrats From Competitive Districts Have Announced They Will Retire. "[Arkansas Rep. Marion] Berry will become the sixth Democrat in a competitive seat to leave in the last two months but the first to announce his retirement since the party's special election loss in Massachusetts last Tuesday. ... Arkansas will be a huge focus of Republican efforts in the fall with Berry and Rep. Vic Snyder (D) retiring and Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D) in deep trouble as she seek re-election. ...Berry joins Snyder as well as Reps. Dennis Moore (Kans.), John Tanner (Tenn.), Brian Baird (Wash.) and Bart Gordon (Tenn.) as Members sitting in districts either won by McCain or carried narrowly by President Obama to step aside between the end of November and today." (Chris Cillizza, "Arkansas Rep. Marion Berry To Retire," The Washington Post's The Fix Blog, 1/24/10)

Sens. Byron Dorgan (D-SD) And Chris Dodd (D-CT), Gov. Bill Ritter (D-CO), And Lt. Gov. John Cherry (D-MI) All Announced In January They Were No Longer Running For Office. "Dorgan's announcement was accompanied Tuesday by Michigan Democratic Lt. Gov. John Cherry's decision to end his floundering bid for governor, and by the revelation that both Dodd and Colorado Gov. Bill Ritter would announce Wednesday that they would not seek reelection." (Manu Raju & Josh Kraushaar, "Top Democrats Head For The Exits," Politico, 1/6/10)

Apparently Obama's Assurance That He Will Be Difference Between This Year And 1994 GOP Wave Has Not Been Comforting. "'Obama advisers dismissed warnings that they were repeating the same mistakes on health care that were made by the Clinton administration in 1993-94, Berry suggested. They just kept telling us how good it was going to be. ... We're going to see how much difference that makes now.' In the 2008 general election - in which Berry ran unopposed - Obama captured just over 38 percent of the vote in the 1st Congressional District, losing to Sen. John McCain, RAriz., by more than 20 points." (Charlie Frago "Sources: Berry To Retire In 2011 7th Term Called Democrat's Last," Ark ansas Democrat-Gazette, 1/25/10)

• Rep. Marion Berry (D-AR) "The president himself, when that was brought up in one group, said, 'Well, the big difference here and in '94 was you've got me.'" (Charlie Frago "Sources: Berry To Retire In 2011 7th Term Called Democrat's Last," Arkansas Democrat-Gazette, 1/25/10)

... BECAUSE THEY SEE WAVE COMING

Democrats Now Trail Republicans By 7 Percent In Generic Ballot Polling; A 14 Percent Swing Since Obama Took Office. (3,500 LVs, MoE +/- 2, 1/4-1/10/10; "Generic Congressional Ballot," Rasmussen Reports, 1/25-31/10)

• "Voters now trust Republicans more than Democrats on nine out of 10 key issues regularly tracked by Rasmussen Reports." ("Trust on Issues," Rasmussen Reports, 2/5/10)

GALLUP: Voters Leaving Democratic Party For GOP As Democrats Party Identification Lead Over GOP Only 5 Points (48-43), Compared To One Year Ago When Democrats Led GOP By 15 Percent (53-38). ("Party Affiliation," Gallup, 1/8-10/10; "Party Affiliation," Gallup, 1/30-2/1/09)

"[I]f Democrats stay on their current downward trajectory, their majority will be history. The retirements that are likely to result from almost any deterioration in the House Democrats' current situation would reduce their chances of maintaining control to 50-50." (Charlie Cook, "Presidential Sins," National Journal, 1/30/10)

"[R]ecent retirements, worrisome poll numbers for several incumbents and the entrance of some strong GOP challengers have prompted a wave of concern amongst Senate Dems." (Jay Newton-Small, "How the Democrats Could Lose the Senate," Time, 2/4/10)

• Once Thought Inconceivable, There Are Now Enough Democrat-Held Senate Seats Considered "Competitive" For GOP To Potentially Take Control. "With the developments in Illinois and Indiana over the past 24 hours, the Cook Political Report now carries 10 Democratic-held seats in their most competitive categories -- meaning, theoretically, that if Republicans ran the table (and lost none of their own toss up seats in Kentucky, Missouri, New Hampshire and Ohio) they could get to 51 seats and the Senate majority. Is it a longshot? Absolutely. But, remember that recent history has shown that in a national political landscape tipped in favor of one party a strong majority of toss up contests tend to fall that party's way." (Chris Cillizza, "Is The Senate Majority Now In Play?" The Washington Post's The Fix Blog, 2/3/10)